Best Bet: Phillies ML (-155)

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The Phillies entered this matchup as heavy favorites for good reason: Zack Wheeler had been virtually untouchable at Citizens Bank Park, posting a 1.98 ERA there in 2023 while holding the Pirates to a paltry .207 average over five career starts. Pittsburgh’s lineup—already ranking 29th against premium velocity—looked overmatched against his 96-mph fastball/slider combo, and their road struggles (3-12 last 15 vs. RHP) only compounded the issue. Mitch Keller’s night-game woes (5.68 ERA in 2023) set the stage for Philly’s lefty-heavy lineup to feast, and Bryce Harper delivered the knockout blow in the 3rd with a two-RBI double off a hanging curveball—a pitch he’d crushed at a .402 clip the previous season. Wheeler’s dominance continued with a gutsy 9-pitch strikeout of Bryan Reynolds with the bases loaded in the 6th, and the Phillies’ bullpen (2.34 home ERA) slammed the door. The line movement told the story too, jumping from -145 to -155 despite lopsided public action—a clear sign of sharp money backing the home team. While alternatives like the Rays (-130 vs. LAA) were tempting, Reid Detmers’ improved slider made him a risky fade, and Bobby Miller’s shaky spring command kept us off the Dodgers’ run line. In the end, Wheeler’s arm and Harper’s bat proved why they were worth the premium price. 9 straight Phillies wins when Wheeler starts at home vs. NL Central.